CEO North America, October-November-December 2025

Can North America Overcome Trade Uncertainty to Finish 2025 on a Positive Note?

CEO North America / October – November – December 2025

So far in 2025, tariffs and trade turbulence have shaken North America’s C-Suite, and the rollercoaster is expected to continue into Q4.

President Trump’s recent announcement of additional tariffs on the auto, household goods, and pharmaceutical industries has shocked markets, which began to stabilize after months of uncertainty earlier in the year.

Despite trade uncertainty, the U.S. economy currently sits in a strong position. The annual inflation rate increased to 2.9% in Q3, reaching its highest since January. With the Federal Reserve’s target at 2%, C-Suite expectations now include the possibility of two more interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

In Q3, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a surprising 3.8% rate, significantly upgrading its previous estimate from Q2’s growth. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP rebounded in the spring to recover from a 0.6 percent decline in the first quarter.

North American executives enter Q4 riding this wave of positivity, with consumer spending recently rising at a 2.5 percent rate.

The Labor Department has indicated that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in Q3. Job movement in Q4 will help analysts better understand the true effect of the administration’s policies on overall employment growth.

The nation’s GDP will stay steady at a 3.3% rate for Q4.

Despite signs of economic fragility, the Canadian economy, contrary to expectations, has avoided a definitive recession.

The Bank of Canada has announced its readiness to consider further rate cuts before the end of 2025, and Canada’s economy is showing clear signs of recovery that will continue into 2026.

South of the border, Mexico’s Central Bank has lowered its main interest rate by 25 basis points amid ongoing worries about global trade disputes and sluggish economic growth. The reduction marked the tenth consecutive meeting with rate cuts, and the bank has added additional cuts in upcoming meetings through to the end of 2025.

Despite tense relations between the three North American nations, moving forward through the rest of 2025, Canada and Mexico have agreed to strengthen their ties, promising closer cooperation on trade and security as both countries deal with increasing economic pressure from the U.S.

Canada is also boosting trade with Mexico, aiming to increase import levels that were previously valued at $40.5 billion, and positive discussions among the nations are to continue into Q4.

The USMCA agreement, which remains in effect, will face further pressures in Q4, after Trump announced a 25% tariff on heavy truck imports starting October 1.

Without exemptions, Mexico, the top exporter of medium and heavy-duty trucks to the United States, is likely to face major setbacks in Q4, including order cancellations and production delays.

The Canadian auto industry is reviewing its decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Trade unions within Canada are warning the government that lifting the measure would be a devastating blow to Canada’s auto industry, emphasizing that unfair competition from Chinese automakers poses an immediate threat to Canadian jobs and the country’s auto supply chain, including steel and aluminum sectors.

As we enter Q4, the S&P 500 remains robust, offering numerous growth prospects for North America’s C-Suite. Under the Trump administration, the focus continues to be on domestic production to potentially boost employment and stimulate economic growth.

̶ Stuart James, Editorial Director

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