Gains and losses

For World Population Day, a look at the countries with the biggest projected gains – and losses – by 2100, according to Pew Research Center.

Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico are among the world’s 10 most populous countries today, but come 2100, they are projected to be overtaken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt – none of which are currently in the top 10.

According to recently released population projections from the United Nations, 8 of the 10 countries that are expected to gain the most people by 2100 are in Africa: Nigeria (with the largest gain, 527 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Niger, Egypt and Sudan. The two non-African nations on this list are Pakistan and the United States, which are projected to see population gains of 182 million and 103 million people, respectively. Of the six countries that are projected to account for more than half of all world population growth by 2100, five are in Africa. Half the world’s babies will be born in Africa by 2100, up from three-in-ten today.

Here’s how the list of the 10 most populous countries in the world has changed since 1950 – and how it is projected to change again by 2100, according to a Pew Research Center analysis:

Here are 11 key takeaways from the UN’s “World Population Prospects 2019”:

1. The global fertility rate is expected to be 1.9 births per woman by 2100, down from 2.5 today.The rate is projected to fall below the replacement fertility rate (2.1 births per woman) by 2070. The replacement fertility rate is the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population’s size.
2.  Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth for the rest of this century. Between 2020 and 2100, Africa’s population is expected to increase from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion. Projections show these gains will come mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to more than triple in population by 2100. The regions that include the United States and Canada (Northern America) and Australia and New Zealand (Oceania) are projected to grow throughout the rest of the century, too, but at slower rates than Africa. (This analysis uses regional classifications from the UN and may differ from other Pew Research Center reports.)
3. Europe and Latin America are both expected to have declining populations by 2100. Europe’s population is projected to peak at 748 million in 2021. The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to surpass Europe in population by 2037 before peaking at 768 million in 2058.
4. The population of Asia is expected to increase from 4.6 billion in 2020 to 5.3 billion in 2055, then start to decline. China’s population is expected to peak in 2031, while the populations of Japan and South Korea are projected to decline after 2020. India’s population is expected to grow until 2059, when it will reach 1.7 billion. Meanwhile, Indonesia – the most populous country in Southeastern Asia – is projected to reach its peak population in 2067.