Brent Crude will average $117 per barrel in March and $116 per barrel in 2Q22 before falling to $102 per barrel in 2H22, according to the latest, admittedly highly uncertain, forecast by the IEA.
“A wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes could significantly affect energy markets during the forecast period,” notes the forecast. “Supply uncertainty results from the conflict in Ukraine, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers increase drilling.”
The news caused oil prices to rally from below the $100 per barrel mark Thursday morning amid a backdrop of low oil inventories and uncertainties regarding the potential for oil supply disruptions.
According to the report regular gasoline prices averaged $3.52 per gallon in February and rising crude oil prices will cause prices to reach $4.10 per gallon in 2Q22 and $3.71 per gallon in 2H22.
The IEA also foresees that US oil production will reach a record level of 13 million barrels per day in 2023 up from 12 million barrels per day in 2022.
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