The El Niño climate event is intensifying into a “supersized” phenomenon that will persist until February 2027, raising the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in many countries, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
It “has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization, said.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” Saulo added.
Countries in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are set to bear the brunt of the immediate impact, but the entire world is set to feel the impact in commodities from corn, cocoa and coffee to energy.
Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are experiencing erratic weather conditions and drought, linked in an August report by Oxfam to El Niño, that have led to severe crop losses, as Indonesia battles devastating wildfires. A weaker monsoon season in India is expected to impact the growth of rice, sugar, cotton, soybean and more, while officials in Peru say fishing of anchovy — commonly used in livestock feed — has faced a “devastating blow.”
Extreme weather is expected to have unpredictable effects on energy generation and demand, with potential disruption to hydropower, wind and solar output, oil and gas production and refining operations, as well as mining.
UN Secretary General António Guterres said on Thursday that El Niño was being “supersized before our eyes.”
“The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
An El Niño event occurs when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Sea surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July and ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal in the period from late July to mid-August, according to the WMO’s latest research. Below the surface shows “even more exceptional warmth,” the WMO said, with subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.
El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is a naturally occurring climate pattern that oscillates with La Niña, or “little girl,” every two to seven years.
