The global race to secure and stockpile commodities, such as rare earth minerals and precious metals for technology use, is creating a bullish market – alongside potential problems for those countries with the highest amounts of natural commodity reserves.
Findings from the latest J.P. Morgan Markets’ e-Trading survey data show that emerging and ongoing geopolitical tensions and risks are expected to have the biggest impact on markets in 2026, according to 41% of institutional traders and investors surveyed.
Meanwhile, data from 10 years of the e-Trading survey makes it clear that institutional traders’ concerns have grown significantly in recent years. Back in 2017, market volatility was thought to be a risk by just 17% of traders, while global political uncertainty and global economic uncertainty were each thought to be major risks by just 15% of traders. By 2021, just 8% of traders felt that global trade tensions would have the biggest impact on markets the following year.
The combination of economic weight and foreign policy is a heady mix and, when executed by major powers, has far reaching consequences. A new dynamic, driven by an ‘America First’ shift in foreign policy since the inauguration of President Donald Trump for his second term in January 2025, has caused ripples – and in some cases threatened a tsunami – in the commodities markets.
Industries such as energy and technology have been identified by the administration as being just as important to U.S. national security as defense. This policy pivot has resulted in a reprioritization of resource gathering to secure U.S. supply chains.
Carolyn Kissane, clinical associate professor and academic director of global affairs at New York University, says:
“We have seen a very resource-centric state craft coming out of the U.S. specifically related to critical minerals and rare earths.”
This includes policies such as the new critical minerals initiative FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement), which are designed to turn co-ordination on prices, trade and investment into competitive advantage. Project Vault, which was announced by the U.S. administration in February 2026, is designed to challenge China’s market power, and will co-ordinate the stockpiling of key resources. We have also seen an ambition for the U.S. to take control of mineral-rich Greenland, and the actions taken against the Venezuelan government to secure access to its oil reserves.
“Under the Biden administration there was a growing realization that the United States was at risk due to a dependency on China,” says Kissane. “But this [current administration] is much more state interventionist than we have seen in the past across different commodities.”
What’s the rush?
There’s nothing new about forging links with nations with precious natural resources.. But in recent decades, China has been willing to invest in countries with higher government risk, including some emerging market economies.
While China secured rare resources, the U.S. – along with the rest of the global west – was left behind and is now playing catchup, says Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan.
He adds:
“The Chinese have essentially weaponized some of these supply chains such as gallium, germanium or other rare earth minerals and it has been a shock to the system.”
Protection against such ‘weaponization’ of supply chains was the reason for the U.S. launching Project Vault. Also, the overt desire of the U.S. administration to secure mineral rights in Greenland, and its moves to secure oil supplies from Venezuela, for example, demonstrate how far it is prepared to go to achieve its objective.
One channel being used to secure the supply of critical minerals is the U.S. Export-Import Bank. This has resulted in unprecedented U.S. investment in the ‘copper belt’ in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other regions that have valuable resources, says Shearer.
“This has awakened a push that is moving very quickly and is quite exciting for the investment landscape,” he adds.
Copper and steel – the mainstays of transport, infrastructure and defense industries – have been joined by technology, as chips lie at the heart of every product. AI, the next great technological frontier, also relies on chips and energy. This means technology has been elevated into the select group of industries that require government support and protection.
Degrees of separation
However, the imposition of tariffs has been the U.S. administration’s primary policy tool over the past year, which has brought its own challenges.
The J.P. Morgan Markets e-Trading survey shows that for 13% of respondents, interest rate policies are expected to have the biggest impact on markets in 2026. And tariffs are, by their nature, inflationary instruments. One of the previous times inflation was such a major issue for traders was back in 2021, when there was a surge in prices after the pandemic, which was also exaggerated by the low base they were compared to in 2020, which prompted 48% of traders to cite it as a main concern.
