Billionaire Elon Musk has put humanoid robots in the spotlight this year, positioning them as central to Tesla’s valuation, which he thinks could hit tens of trillions of dollars. But Tesla is yet to sell its flagship humanoid robot Optimus.
Instead, it’s likely a slew of Chinese companies that will beat Tesla to the punch and begin ramping up production of robots in 2026, as Beijing puts the technology at the center of its strategic plans.
“China currently leads the United States in the early commercialization of humanoid robots,” Andreas Brauchle, partner at consultancy Horváth, told CNBC by email. “While both countries are expected to build similarly large markets over time, China is scaling more rapidly in this initial phase.”
Humanoid robots are designed to be shaped and move like a human. Artificial intelligence algorithms power their abilities along with complex hardware like semiconductors. Proponents say they could be used across various settings, from factories to hospitality and even in the home.
Beijing makes robots a key priority
Over the past few years, China has made robotics a key focus of its tech strategy, unveiling plans to create supply chains and mass production of the machines.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and the country’s top leaders, known as the Central Committee, met in October and released proposals for the “15th five-year plan,” a document that lays out some of the key focus areas for Beijing in the coming years.
“Embodied artificial intelligence,” a term that refers to AI-driven hardware like robotics or driverless cars, was mentioned in the text.
For China, humanoid robots represent an opportunity to address labor challenges in the world’s second-largest economy as well as advancing Beijing’s quest for tech supremacy.
China’s birth rates are declining and the population is aging, leading to a reduced number of people in the workforce and rising labor costs. Robots are seen as a way to address this.
Meanwhile, China is locked in an ongoing tech race with the U.S. across multiple sectors. Robotics, seen as a real-world application of AI, could become a new battleground in 2026. Politico reported this month that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with the CEOs of robotics companies to form a plan to accelerate the industry. Washington is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year, Politico reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
China’s key robotics companies
“China could be the most important market for humanoids,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note this month. Analysts at the bank forecast a global total addressable market for humanoids of $9 trillion by 2050, with China accounting for more than 60% of that.
Chinese robotics firms are attempting to power ahead with mass production.
Unitree, which is gearing up for an initial public offering that could value it at around $7 billion, is one of China’s buzziest robotics players. The company has various robotics models, including humanoids. This year, it debuted its latest model, the H2, showcasing its ability to dance.
Beijing’s investment bubble concerns
Even though robotics is a strategic priority for China, this hasn’t stopped regulators from warning about a potentially overheated market.
In November, China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), warned there is a risk of a bubble forming in the humanoid robotic market. The NDRC said that there are more than 150 humanoid robotics companies in China, with that number growing, and many of them are bringing out similar products.
In the past, there have been boom and bust cycles around technology that Beijing has given strategic importance, such as electric vehicles.
