Americans’ assessments of the U.S. economy improved slightly in June but remain negative, as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index increased from -22 in April and -18 in May to -14 this month. The index has been consistently in the -14 to -22 range since November, after President Donald Trump won the election. It stood at -26 in October.
Although the latest index score is an improvement from the lower levels recorded over much of the past three years, it stands in stark contrast to the positive economic confidence readings during the first three years of Trump’s first presidential term.
Economic conditions in the U.S., including unemployment and inflation rates, were generally stable during the June 2-19 poll, while the stock market remained improved from the April volatility that resulted from the Trump tariffs. The Federal Reserve met at the end of the poll’s field period and kept interest rates unchanged but signaled that it might cut them later this year if, as it expects, Trump’s tariffs cause inflation to rise. The poll was completed before Trump ordered military air strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran on June 21.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or getting worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score is +56, in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008.
Current Economic Conditions Viewed Less Poorly, but Outlook Is Flat
The modest improvement in economic confidence is a result of better assessments of current economic conditions, while there has been no change in Americans’ outlook for the economy.
The plurality of Americans, 41%, rate current economic conditions as “only fair,” while 31% think they are “poor” and 27% “excellent” or “good.” The share of U.S. adults who say the economy is poor has fallen six percentage points since May to the lowest level since August 2021. This has been accompanied by slight upticks in those rating it as excellent/good or only fair.
Although ratings of current conditions are nearly equally positive and negative, economic confidence remains in negative territory primarily because of the public’s continued poor economic outlook. A steady 36% of Americans say the economy is getting better, and 59% think it is worsening. These readings have not changed meaningfully since January.
Republicans’ Economic Confidence Remains in Positive Territory
As is usually the case, economic confidence varies greatly between those who identify with the incumbent president’s party and those who identify with the opposition. The ECI continues to be positive among Republicans (+52), as it has been since Trump took office. In contrast, Democrats (-65) and independents (-22) rate the economy negatively.
Republicans’ confidence about the economy is at its highest point since October 2020, before Trump’s defeat in that year’s election, while Democrats’ and independents’ has improved slightly since May, but both readings are solidly negative.
