Visa Business and Economic Insights expects the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021, supported by income growth and consumers prioritizing gifts despite higher travel costs.
Key findings from VBEI’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook include:
- U.S. holiday retail sales are forecast to rise 4.5% year over year, marking the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.
- On average, consumers plan to spend $777 on holiday gifts, up 5.6% from 2025, signaling continued willingness to spend even as shoppers remain value-conscious amid elevated inflation.
- Physical gifts are winning a greater share of holiday budgets, as higher travel costs lead many consumers to prioritize merchandise over experiences.
Thursday’s findings point to continued consumer resilience, supported by solid income growth and household wealth, even as inflation shapes where holiday dollars go. VBEI expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending increasing 1.1%.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”
According to the survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%.
That willingness to spend persists as consumers adjust to higher prices. About one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 say they plan to buy holiday gifts from lower-cost brands or stores than they did last year, underscoring the continued importance of value.
By CEO NA Editorial Staff
