As we head into the final stretch of 2025, we bask in the glow of the freshly released Oscar shortlist, and we now have a clearer sense of what the early voting bodies think about this crop of contenders. On the acting side, a few key names appear to have been quietly counted out despite awe-inspiring performances. As strong as Alexander Skarsgård is in Pillion, the lack of screenings and his limited availability significantly hampered the film’s late-season prospects. It may also explain why he leaned so heavily into press earlier in the season, particularly his memorable presence on the Cannes red carpet. This was likely anticipating long absences later on. The film will likely perform well at the BAFTAs and other European honors, but he appears firmly on the outside of the Best Supporting Actor race.
On the Best Actress front, it would take an act of God, or a cancellation more severe than the Emilia Pérezcontroversy, to count anyone but Jessie Buckley winning come March. She has been securely in the No. 1 position since the film premiered at Telluride. While others jockey for inclusion, they are largely fighting for second place. In contrast, there is growing curiosity around whether or not Cynthia Erivo can continue to maintain Academy favor. While many love Wicked, a significant portion of critics view Wicked: For Goodas a step down from the original, which may ultimately place her on the outside looking in come nominations morning. More familiar names such as Emma Stone and Rose Byrne are far more likely to maintain momentum, given their sustained visibility and industry goodwill.
Thankfully, Renate Reinsve enters the season with one of the year’s best-reviewed foreign language films and has already secured a Best Actress nomination elsewhere for Sentimental Value. Although she was previously snubbed for The Worst Person in the World, it seems unlikely voters will overlook her again so soon. A major factor in her continued strength is the campaign itself. At nearly every major stop this season, from the Academy Museum to the LACMA Gala, Reinsve has appeared alongside Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning, forming a compelling trio whose combined star power underscores the film’s emotional impact. This dynamic is also benefiting Stellan Skarsgård in the Best Supporting Actor race, though many believe he may ultimately be the unfortunate odd one out behind the one-two punch of Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn.
Our money is on Benicio del Toro earning a second win for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. At this point, it also must be acknowledged that the film is leading the Best Picture race, and it is not particularly close. If there is any film capable of challenging it, it would be its studio sibling, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. With much of the season still ahead, and guild awards yet to be decided, Sinners could emerge as this year’s spoiler, racking up a handful of key wins along the way, but it would be unlikely.
Still, Paul Thomas Anderson remains a perennial favorite that many guild members and Academy voters find impossible to deny. The fact that the filmmaker behind Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, Punch-Drunk Love, and Phantom Thread has yet to win a competitive Oscar is widely regarded within the industry as an injustice. Despite a lackluster box office performance, the reception for One Battle After Another has convinced many that this may finally be his year. Whether it will also be Leonardo DiCaprio’s year remains an open question. DiCaprio currently leads the Best Actor race, even as many consider Timothée Chalamet’s performance in to be a career best. Whatever one thinks of the Marty Supreme press tour and its impact on the race, it is undeniable that Chalamet approached this project with a clear strategy to drive audiences into theaters.
Given the challenging subject matter and a filmmaker who has never grossed more than $60 million worldwide, the young producer-actor appears determined to ensure that Marty Supreme succeeds commercially. Some in the industry believe that emphasis may hurt his Best Actor chances, but with momentum firmly on his side, it is fair to ask whether he even minds. As has often been noted, it took DiCaprio six attempts to secure his Oscar, and Chalamet would hardly see that as a lesser path. If anything, he likely hopes to arrive there a bit earlier in terms of age and experience.
With several categories appearing largely settled, including Best Score for Ludwig Göransson, Best Song, and Best Cinematography for Sinners, the remaining intrigue lies in a handful of key races. Can Chloé Zhaoupset Anderson for Best Adapted Screenplay with Hamnet? Will Ryan Coogler claim his first solo competitive Oscar for Best Original Screenplay or even pull off a Moonlight-style shock by overtaking Anderson in Best Picture? These are the questions that will define the remainder of the season, and we will be tracking every development from now until Oscar night.
For now, we close out 2025 with our snapshot of where the nominations appear to be heading before the next wave of contests in January. After the Golden Globes, the New York Film Critics Gala, Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG nominations, some of these early assumptions will be confirmed, others overturned, and a few revealed as pure imagination. Bookmark Awards Tour and follow along as we break down every major move on the road to Oscar night.
