Generative AI could contribute up to $1 trillion to the U.S. economy in the next 10 years, according to a study from Cognizant and Oxford Economics. They expect more than half of the jobs driving the US economy to be significantly impacted by the technology but predicted only a small percentage of workers will have a difficult time finding new work after losing their jobs to AI.
According to the study, AI could spur job loss for 9% of the U.S. workforce over the next decade, with about 1% of the workforce facing difficulties finding new work afterward. At the same time, AI is expected to drive U.S. productivity gains of between 1.7% and 3.5% over that time frame, bringing a U.S. GDP increase of $477 billion to $1 trillion per year.
The U.S. is currently in the “experimental phase” of AI adoption, with 13% of companies using it, the study found. That is expected to reach 31% over the next four to eight years and almost 50% in 10 years. After that, adoption is expected to slow but still grow for another 20 years until it nears 100%.
“As this technology becomes commonplace in the workforce, new employee skills will be in demand to support areas including business strategy and AI management,” the authors wrote. “Reskilling programs, once seen as a tactical add-on to an employee’s career path, will become an essential part of the workday, with time allocated for training and education.”
