The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its oil consumption forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 downwards in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook.
“The December Short-Term Energy Outlook remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,” noted the EIA in its outlook. “Notably, the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant raises uncertainty about the level of energy consumption throughout the world compared with last month’s forecast.”
According to the outlook global oil consumption will average 96.91 barrels per day in 2021. This is 620,000 barrels per day than the previous outlook in November.
According to the forecast Brent prices will average $71 per barrel in December and $73 per barrel in 1Q22.
The forecast sees gasoline prices falling from November’s high of $3.39 per gallon to $3.13 per gallon in December before falling to $2.88per gallon on average in 2022.
The outlook notes that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 introduces potential downside risks particularly in the jet fuel market.