Oil prices could spike to $200 per barrel if Russian supplies are disrupted, according to a report released by business thinktank the Conference Board last Friday.
If there is a shock to Russian oil production in 2Q22 reducing production by 33% and a gradual increase in production in countries with spare capacity such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, prices could climb to $195 per barrel by 3Q22, according to the report.
A 33% production shock which is not compensated by higher production in other countries would lead to prices spiking to $280 per barrel in 1Q23 bringing global GDP growth to 2.0% or below.
According to the model applied by the Conference Board $200 per barrel oil would push US inflation up by 1.1% to 7.3% and reduce world GDP by 0.2% to 3.3% year-over-year in 2022.
The report notes the importance of Chinese consumption of Russian oil for price stability at a moment when many countries are considering sanctions on the Russian energy sector.