A medida que los intereses de los consumidores se centran en el bienestar, continuará el movimiento hacia una bebida “más saludable” en 2020.
Por Danny Brager, vicepresidente sénior, bebidas alcohólicas, Nielsen
Hemos estado siguiendo un movimiento hacia una bebida “más saludable” y esta tendencia continuará en 2020. Las generaciones más jóvenes están liderando este cambio y afectará las cantidades y preferencias de bebida. Los deseos de los consumidores también impulsarán una mayor transparencia en el etiquetado y las innovaciones en los productos de los proveedores.
De cara a 2020, espere ver un crecimiento en lo siguiente:
- Licores / licores con menor contenido de alcohol (ABV)
- Cócteles listos para beber con ABV más bajo
- ABV más bajo y IPA con menos calorías
- Más bebidas alternativas con bajo contenido de azúcar y carbohidratos, y opciones bajas en calorías
- A greater selection of non-alcoholic craft beers, with major craft brewers starting to play in this space
- Active, lifestyle-oriented drinks that tie into consumer interest in their active routines
Spirits will drive the most consistent growth
Building on an already upward trajectory, spirits will experience the most growth from whiskey, tequila, cognac, ready-to-drink/prepared cocktails and Tito’s Handmade Vodka, the top-selling spirits brand, which is still experiencing double-digit growth. Premium and ultra premium segments will continue to lead the category’s growth, at the expense of lower price tiers.
Spirits have the advantage of a versatile product range with multiple drink types, flavors, styles and mixing opportunities—meeting the desires of the cocktail culture, and appealing to a broad consumer base (age, gender and race/ethnicity).
Suppliers and distributors will put more energy and investment into their e-commerce efforts
While e-commerce sales of alcoholic beverages continue to grow, the industry has struggled to keep up with broader e-commerce expansion in part due to complex alcohol rules and regulations, but 2020 will represent a turning point in the industry’s efforts. Key players will ramp up their investment, recognizing the potential of impulse purchasing declines in mainstream stores as consumers fill more of their overall shopping needs online—and not via a store trip.
Growth in the beer industry will focus on nearly everything but beer
Expect to see more acquisitions—particularly by big beer companies—in spirits and some selected growing segments of wine. Brewers of all sizes will invest and innovate in ready-to-drink cocktails—and even traditional spirit products.
Beer brands will continue to try to play in the space adjacent to cannabis through products that use hemp and emulate the olfactory experience of cannabis.
Craft beer will continue to find success with styles found in more traditional beer segments (e.g., American and Mexican lagers).
Hard Seltzer’s growth will be supplemented by “hard” beverages of other types
The number of players in the hard seltzer space will double in 2020, adding products from big brewers/mainstream brands, craft brewers and spirit companies.
Additionally, we will see an increase in sub-segments of hard seltzers, focused on attributes like higher ABV, healthy ingredients and features, bolder flavors, and heightened product development and innovation around hard kombucha and hard coffee. These options won’t make as big of a punch as leading seltzers on the market today, but they will attract a different type of consumer/drinker.
We don’t expect growth rates for hard seltzer to match those of summer 2019, as the base of business grows substantially. At the same time, the introduction of so many new brands by new players, along with the introduction of new flavors, packaging and formulas by existing players, will help to fuel growth.
Ready-to-drink cocktails—across beer, wine and spirits—will boom
Packaging will focus on the convenience of slim cans and alternative packaging. Consumers will increasingly see traditional cocktails with a twist to make them more interesting (e.g., Mezcal Mule). Retailers will continue to focus on convenience, through tactics like prepared cocktail displays, regardless of the alcohol base.
Table wine will encounter struggles, but opportunities remain for total wine
Table wine sales will decline as long as the economy continues to be healthy, with the biggest losses coming from lower-priced wine in bottles.
Pockets of growth in wine will including the following:
- Sparkling wine, driven largely by Prosecco
- Rosé, though growth is unlikely to be more than single digits
- Wines from New Zealand and Oregon, with potential also from Eastern European countries
- Wines in cans and alternative packaging
- Rociadores de vino y cócteles a base de vino en latas
- Entrada firme en la conversación sobre salud y bienestar, a través de un ABV más bajo y vino biodinámico.
Los principales indicadores de 2019 sobre el futuro de las bebidas alcohólicas se acelerarán en 2020. Desde el continuo aumento del seltzer duro y los cócteles listos para beber hasta la estabilidad del vino espumoso, los jugadores de bebidas alcohólicas tienen que trabajar mucho para mantener el ritmo de una base de consumidores cuyas elecciones a menudo están motivadas por la salud y la conveniencia.
