Output in most OECD countries has surpassed late 2019 levels and is returning to its pre-pandemic path though low-income countries with low vaccination rates are at risk of stagnating, according to the latest OECD report.
“Our central scenario is that the global recovery continues, with the world coping better with the pandemic and monetary and fiscal policies remaining generally supportive throughout 2022,” note the reports authors. “After a rebound of 5.6% in 2021, global growth would move along at a brisk pace of 4.5% in 2022, moderating to 3.2% in 2023.”
The report highlights imbalances such as marked differences between the speed of recovery between countries, acute labor shortages in some sectors and persistent gaps between supply and demand of some goods, as well as higher food and energy costs leading to unexpectedly high and persistent price rises.
The report anticipates a rise of 5.6% of real GDP in the US in 2021, falling to 3.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.
“An upside risk to the projections is that the high levels of accumulated household savings fuel a stronger rebound in consumption than expected,” note the reports authors of the US. “In contrast, inflation could continue to surprise on the upside and a de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations could prompt tighter monetary and financial conditions starting in early 2022 that dent the recovery.”
Canadian real GDP is expected to grow at a slightly faster than the US at 3.9% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.