Reopening for business means a new normal in which Canada is prepared to weather future shocks on a par with coronavirus, analysts believe.
Epidemiologists believe Canada faces a tough challenge to reopen its economy, a challenge that will require not only a massive increase in testing for COVID-19 but also a major overhaul in the way infectious disease data is collected and shared among provinces.
Data suggests Canada has been relatively successful in “flattening the curve” of coronavirus cases, yet epidemiologists warn the fight is not yet over and reopening the economy too quickly could merely prompt a renewed flareup of the virus.
Failure to reopen for business correctly could have devastating consequences for an economy that’s already in trouble. While forecasts expect growth to bottom out in April or May at which point it will stabilize or gradually recover, a second wave of coronavirus cases could hammer consumer confidence and derail those predictions.
Getting things right
Getting things right, experts say, will overwhelmingly rely on adequate testing, contact tracing, and sharing data, yet these tasks run the risk of being hindered by supply chain bottlenecks, a lack of consistency in testing protocols among provinces, poor data sharing, and complications presented by the disease itself.
Part of the problem to come will surely be the highly contagious nature of the virus. Early evidence from countries that have engaged in widespread testing shows that between 25 and 50% of those infected with COVID 19 do not display any of its telltale symptoms. This evidence suggests that if medical authorities don’t identify people who are asymptomatic transmitters, many believe another flare up would be inevitable.
Ontario, with a population of 14.5 million people, has thus far tested 94,000 people and has plans to double the number of tests processed each day from a current 4000 to 14,000 by April 29, 2020, by which time overall lab capacity will have been expanded. Iceland, by contrast, has already tested 100,000 of its 364,000 residents. Norway is running 30 tests per 1,000 of its population– approximately double that of Ontario.
Obstacles ahead
Pushes to ramp up testing have inevitably run into shortages of critical medical equipment and devices due to supply chain issues.
Although the federal government collaborates with provinces on the testing issue, critical decisions about who is tested, how the data is gathered, and what is shared are nevertheless taken at the provincial level.
For instance, while Alberta has made testing available to anyone exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, Ontario has limited it to people sick enough to be in hospital, health-care workers, long-term care residents and Indigenous people.
Experts believe that without a single baseline criteria for who is tested, how many tests are administered per 100,000 people, and how the data is reported to the federal government, no accurate national picture of how the virus is spreading among the population is possible.
How Canada decides to address these challenges amid a gradual return to normal economic activity will be critical.
