GDP growth will reach 4.3% in 2022 according to forecasters at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, with particularly 2Q22 expected to see strong growth as the COVID-19 pandemic fades.
Nonetheless inflation and current geo-political turmoil could pose a risk to this incipient recovery from 2020’s 3.5% GDP decrease according to senior economist Leo Feler.
“Once again, our economic forecast comes with considerable uncertainty,” notes Feler. “It depends on the future course of the pandemic, and it depends on how long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last and whether it will spread to include other countries.”
The forecast growth for 2022 would be well below the 5.7% GDP growth of 2021. The Anderson Management School’s forecast tapers into the future with 2.8% growth expected in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.
The UCLA forecasters expect an important uptick in defense spending to contribute to growth in the defense sector.
“We have already seen pronouncements from countries that they need to increase their defense spending,” writes Feler. “And even in the U.S., as part of our economic forecast, we model a substantial increase in federal defense spending, not only because of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine but because of the possibility that the conflict might embolden other countries to become aggressors.”
