A recession is much less likely now than it was a year ago, according to a recent Wall Street Journal survey of 71 economists. The same factors that helped avoid a recession last year, including consumer spending and a strong labor market, are expected to continue into 2024.
“Despite many projections for a recession, a historically fast tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, a banking crisis, and geopolitical crises and uncertainty, the labor market stands strong,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
This is welcome news for CEOs, as a recent Conference Board survey of more than 1,200 executives found only 37 percent of U.S. CEOs feel prepared for a recession.
Meanwhile, employment is expected to grow more slowly than in recent years, with hiring concentrated on filling existing roles rather than adding new jobs. Experts also predict there will be small increases in layoffs and unemployment this year. Andrew Flowers, lead labor economist at Appcast, expects the unemployment rate to increase from 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent by the end of the year.
