After consecutive months of increases in November and December the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) was down 0.3% for January.
“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the decline—the first since February 2021.”
The LEI is a composite of 10 indicators designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring,” added Ozyildirim.
According to Conference Board projections US GDP will grow by 3.5% year-over-year in 2022.